Averizari: urmează să vină „un uragan economic”

Cel mai puternic bancher al Americii, Jamie Dimon – directorul executiv al JPMorgan – a avertizat miercuri că „un uragan economic” începe să se apropie, fără a da alte explicaţii.

Acţiunile sectorului financiar au scăzut instantaneu: Citigroup -2,6%, Goldman Sachs -3%; Morgan Stanley -2,5%; Bank of America -2,5%. Investitorii pe pieţe financiare sunt în alertă maximă având în vedere că mesajele care vin din economie sunt destul de proaste, începând de la creşterea dobânzilor în încercare de a stăvili inflaţia până la perspectiva tot mai probabilă a unei recensiuni în SUA. Inflaţia este la un maxim de 40 de ani în SUA şi la un maxim de 20 de ani în Europa, iar Băncile Centrale sunt nevoite să crească dobânzile, ceea ce pune presiune şi mai mare asupra economiilor. Războiul din Ucraina şi tensiunile geopolitice fac viaţa şi mai grea, iar consumatorii încep să fie loviţi din toate părţile.

Bursele sunt pe minus de la începutul anului, iar prognozele sunt din ce în ce mai proaste, conchide Ziarul Financiar

Andrei Caramitru, economist, spunea ca ,,95% probabilitate acum de recesiune globală severa si de scădere a burselor cu încă 15% cel puțin. Afactate cel mai rău sunt țările emergente, ca de obicei (pentru ca depind de capital străin care acum in loc sa intre, iese si se duce spre zonele mai sigure, titluri in dolar). Adica si România, evident.

Si mai e ceva. Riscurile de destabilizare gravă in Bosnia si Moldova sunt de cel puțin 70% acum. Riscul pe destabilizare în Transilvania
a crescut si el enorm.
Deci mult succes si noroc la toată lumea. Dacă voi credeți ca sunteți safe si ok, si va pregătiți sa aruncați cu banii pe vacanțe vara asta, sa nu va plângeți pe aici ca aulaleu nu am bani nu am job la anul. Asta e. Vestul nu a făcut nimic sa opreasca dur nebunia rușilor, din contra nu știu cum sa ii țină ii puf si sa le dea si mai mulți bani. La noi – evident – nimeni nu face nimic suntem praf ca de obicei. Așa ca totul devine absolut inevitabil acum.”
Iata ce a spus Jamie Dimon pentru CNBS

,,There are two main factors that has Dimon worried: First, the Federal Reserve has signaled it will reverse its emergency bond-buying programs and shrink its balance sheet. The so-called quantitative tightening, or QT, is scheduled to begin this month and will ramp up to $95 billion a month in reduced bond holdings.

“We’ve never had QT like this, so you’re looking at something you could be writing history books on for 50 years,” Dimon said. Several aspects of quantitative easing programs “backfired,” including negative rates, which he called a “huge mistake.”

Central banks “don’t have a choice because there’s too much liquidity in the system,” Dimon said, referring to the tightening actions. “They have to remove some of the liquidity to stop the speculation, reduce home prices and stuff like that.”

The other large factor worrying Dimon is the Ukraine war and its impact on commodities, including food and fuel. Oil “almost has to go up in price” because of disruptions caused by the worst European conflict since World War II, potentially hitting $150 or $175 a barrel, Dimon said.

“Wars go bad, [they] go south in unintended consequences,” Dimon said. “We’re not taking the proper actions to protect Europe from what’s going to happen to oil in the short run.”

‘Huge volatility’

Last week, during an investor conference for his bank, Dimon referred to his economic concerns as “storm clouds” that could dissipate. Presentations from Dimon and his deputies at the all-day meeting have bolstered JPMorgan shares by giving greater detail on investments and updated figures on interest revenue.

But his concerns seem to have deepened since then.

During the response to the 2008 financial crisis, central banks, commercial banks and foreign exchange trading firms were the three major buyers of U.S. Treasurys, Dimon said Wednesday. The players won’t have the capacity or desire to soak up as many U.S. bonds this time, he warned.

“That’s a huge change in the flow of funds around the world,” Dimon said. “I don’t know what the effect of that is, but I’m prepared for, at a minimum, huge volatility.”

One step the bank could take to gird itself for a coming hurricane is to push clients to move a type of lower-quality deposit called “non-operating deposits” into other places, such as money market funds, for example. That would help the bank manage its capital requirements under international rules, potentially helping it absorb a surge in bad loans.

“With all this capital uncertainty, we’re going to have to take actions,” Dimon said. “I kind of want to shed nonoperating deposits again, which we can do in size, to protect ourselves so we can serve clients in bad times. That’s the environment we’re dealing with.”

Banks having a “fortress balance sheet” and conservative accounting are the best protections for a downturn, Dimon said.

The bank has shied away from servicing a lot of federal FHA loans, he said, because delinquencies could hit 5% or 10% there, “which is guaranteed to happen in a downturn,” Dimon said.

‘Shame on you’

Dimon went on a tear during the hourlong session, barreling through topics like a “greatest hits” of his observations and gripes, often letting loose with profanity.

He lambasted investors for voting along with proxy advisors like Glass Lewis, which has disagreed with JPMorgan’s board on recent matters including executive compensation and whether the bank should separate the chairman and CEO roles in the future.

“Shame on you if that’s how you vote,” Dimon said. “Seriously, you should be embarrassed. Do your own homework.”

Companies are being driven out of public markets “because of litigation, regulation, press, cookie-cutter governance,” he added.

Meanwhile, other critics often conflate stakeholder capitalism for being “woke,” Dimon said.  “I am a red-blooded, free market capitalist and I’m not woke,” he said.

“All we’re saying is when we wake up in the morning, we give a s— about serving customers, earning their respect, earning their repeat business.”

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